Ferry (in)decision demonstrates lack of ministerial talent
New Zealand Government plans to replace aging interisland ferries remain adrift
One wonders if anyone in the cabinet bothered to speak up as Finance Minister Nicola Willis lost between 500 million and $1 billion dollars of “taxpayer money” by cancelling the iRex ferries, with the additional cost of replacement ferries and upgraded interisland port infrastructure yet to be added to this total. Willis appears to know the cost of everything but the value of nothing.
The competence of Willis is not the only problem. I believe the ferry (in)decision reveals a more significant weakness in the National/ACT/NZ First government.
The press conference this week revealed that the government is still struggling to answer key questions that arose from the December 2023 decision, such as the cost of alternative ferries and whether trains will be able to drive on and off the ships. Decisions appear to have been shunted away until March, with Nicola Willis desperately claiming, ‘I have discharged my duty to the New Zealand people’, after Willis left the issue on autopilot for nearly a year.
Appointing Winston Peters as Minister of Rail smacks of being a vanity appointment. During the 1996 coalition negotiations, National leader Jim Bolger appointed Peters as ‘Treasurer’ because Bolger knew, deep down, that Peters cares more about the baubles of office than about policy. Peters may talk about the railways built by Prime Minister Julius Vogel in the 19th century, but has little chance of getting anything like Vogel’s rail budget to play with. The cabinet may reject fully rail-capable ferries once again.
It remains to be seen whether setting up another ‘Schedule 4A’ crown company to procure the ferries will just add another layer of bureaucracy at the same time the government is implementing deep cuts across the public sector. A Schedule 4 company structure would also provide a vehicle for the ownership of the ferries to be privatised, though a leaseback deal with Kiwirail.
History shows that once Peters is appointed a senior minister, he is no longer a threat to neoliberal continuance. The timing is also handy, allowing Prime Minister Chris Luxon to stroke Peters’ ego shortly before he loses the deputy Prime Minister role to Act leader David Seymour on 1 April 2025.
In considering the direction of the National/NZ First/ACT government I keep coming back to one question. Who is the ‘Gordon Coates’ figure in this government? Who is able to put the interests of good policy ahead of narrow party interests? Looking at the senior figures in the government, it is hard to identify anyone who actually cares about policy.
Coates off means austerity
National formed in 1936 through the amalgamation of the United (formerly Liberal) and Reform parties, yet it would be very hard to recognise any remnants of the old Liberal party of Richard Seddon in the current government. Even the Reform party governments of the 1920s and early 1930s could contain a figure like Gordon Coates in a senior role.
Coates successfully battled the fiscal conservatives like William Downie Stewart to devalue the New Zealand pound in 1933. Against the complaints of conservatives Coates set up the Reserve Bank. Coates did make mistakes responding to the depression, but he did employ a young economist called Bill Sutch in his office, who no doubt provided contrasting advice. Following the election of Labour in 1936, Sutch remained an influential figure in guiding the New Zealand economy out of the depression through greater government spending. In some ways, Coates helped legitimate the direction of the government that followed.
An open letter from 15 economists sent to the Prime Minister last month questioned the “immediate and long-lasting harm that [their] Government’s approach to fiscal policy is creating”, and called for a suspension of proposed departmental and infrastructure spending cuts. That is a pretty good indication we currently have a government of Downie Stewarts who excel in making depressions worse.
But who is the ‘Coates’ figure in the current government? Do they have anyone who actually cares about policy?
Not only that, National appears to be missing an English
As Finance Minister from 2008 to 2016, Bill English played a key role in shaping policy during the John Key years. He faced an unusual set of circumstances for a National party finance minister with the greater demands for spending generated by the response to the Global Financial Crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes. At least English adopted a longer term approach and did not insist New Zealand return to surplus too quickly. I did not agree with everything English did, but the poor performance of the Luxon-led government suggests things could have been worse.
I can disagree strongly with someone’s politics, but still appreciate when they provide thoughtful leadership. For example, even though I was glad National and ACT were nowhere near the Treasury benches over the COVID-19 pandemic, it was reassuring to gain some insight into how English may have approached the crisis.
The approach outlined by English in his briefing to Jarden appeared thoughtful and reasonably sensible, but I still fear New Zealand’s COVID-19 response would have been undermined by the political predilections of a conservative cabinet had National been in power. By that, I mean more New Zealanders would have died. While English is a moral conservative, in other areas of policy English demonstrated flexibility and an ability to consider issues from more than one starting point. It goes without saying that if English was still finance minister, decisions on the procurement of the ferries would not have been handed over to Winston Peters.
Nor is the Minister of Transport, Simeon Brown up to the job of fixing the ferries, an impression further magnified in his churlish response to Auckland Transport winning the Prince Michael International Road Safety Award for its safer speeds programme this week. Brown dismissed the award, saying "There's lots of woke awards out there, isn't there?” Asked about Brown’s comments, UK-based road safety analyst Richard Owen said; "I don't know if I can dignify with a response. They're clearly not woke awards unless you think people's lives and saving them is somehow woke."
Looking over the current government - it appears the thoughtful types are in short supply, and those who are there are banished to inconsequential positions in the caucus. Given the position of the current government over the Treaty Principles Bill it is hard to imagine someone like Chris Finlayson remaining the Minister of Treaty Negotiations. One can imagine Finlayson is now very thankful he retired from politics when he did.
Luxon just isn’t that good
Prime Minister Chris Luxon does not demonstrate many ideas of his own - he appears to work as a mouthpiece for the ideas of others, a weakness ACT and NZ First take advantage of. As Prime Minister he plays the role of salesman, perhaps comparable to David Lange before the ‘cup of tea’. At least Lange had the saving grace of being funny. Every time Luxon spouts the line, ‘Let me say to you’ or ‘What I say to you is’, Luxon reminds me of none other than the boorish American in Monty Python’s Meaning of Life who attempts to argue with the Grim Reaper by proclaiming ‘I just want to say this’. It may not be long before New Zealanders tell Luxon to ‘Shut up!’
To give another historical comparison, Luxon could be as uninspiring as the Prime Minister Gordon Coates served under, George Forbes. But as I ponder the political direction of the National/Act/NZ First government, a critical weakness repeatedly comes to mind - I struggle to identify a ‘Gordon Coates’ type figure.
Put simply, this government lacks ministerial talent, and it shows.